1. Iinkampani zokugcina umbane eziphezulu ziyaqina

Ngokweempawu zophuhliso lweshishini lokugcina amandla, kuye kwadalwa ipateni yophuhliso, apho iibhetri ze-lithium iron phosphate ziyindlela ephambili, iibhetri ze-sodium-ion zisebenza ngokukhawuleza njengendawo ethatha indawo engaphelelanga, kunye neendlela ezahlukeneyo zebhetri ezincedisanayo. Ngenxa yokwanda kwemfuno yokugcina indawo yokuhlala neyobukhulu, ukuvuthwa kweibhetri yokugcina amandla Itekhnoloji iya kuphucuka ngakumbi, kwaye iindleko zebhetri kulindeleke ukuba zehle. Ishishini leebhetri zokugcina amandla ligxile kakhulu, kunye namashishini aphambili athatha isabelo esikhulu semarike.

2. Ii-inverters zokugcina amandla zikhula ngokukhawuleza

Okwangoku, umthamo wokuthunyelwa kwee-inverters uyaqhubeka nokukhula ngokukhawuleza, kunye nee-micro-inverters ezibalelwa kwinani elikhulu. I-inverter midstream ikakhulu ibonelela ngee-inverters zokugcina amandla ezilungelelaniswe neemeko ezahlukeneyo zesicelo, kodwa akukho nkokeli yemarike epheleleyo. Ngokukhutshwa kwendawo yokugcina amandla enkulu eTshayina kunye nokuvulwa kwemarike yokugcina amandla enkulu phesheya, iukugcinwa kwamandla Ishishini le-inverter kulindeleke ukuba lingene kwixesha elikhawulezayo.

3. Ukupholisa indawo yokugcina amandla kukhula kancinci kancinci

Ngophuhliso oluqhubekayo lwemarike yokugcina amandla e-electrochemical, imarike yolawulo lobushushu nayo ikhule kakhulu. Kwixesha elizayo, ngenani elikhulayo lezicelo zokugcina amandla ezinomthamo ophezulu kunye nezinga eliphezulu, iingenelo zeenkqubo zokupholisa ulwelo ezinokusebenza kakuhle kokusasaza ubushushu kunye nesantya esikhawulezayo ziya kubonakala ngakumbi, zikhawulezise ukungena. Xa kuthelekiswa neenkqubo zokupholisa umoya, iinkqubo zokupholisa ulwelo zibonelela ngobomi bebhetri obuzinzileyo, ukusebenza kakuhle okuphezulu, kunye nolawulo lobushushu oluchanekileyo. Kuqikelelwa ukuba ngo-2025, izinga lokungena kweenkqubo zokupholisa ulwelo liya kufikelela kwi-45%.

4. Unxibelelwano phakathi kwendawo yokugcina izinto zasekhaya zangaphandle, indawo yokugcina izinto ezinkulu zasekhaya.

Iinkqubo zokugcina amandla zahlulwe zibe ziinkqubo ezisetyenziswa ngaphambili nangasemva kwemitha. Iinkqubo ezisetyenziswa ngaphambili zixhaphake kakhulu, apho iTshayina, iMelika, neYurophu zigxile kakhulu kumashishini asebenza ngaphambili. ETshayina, izicelo ezisetyenziswa ngaphambili zibalwa njenge-76% yomlinganiselo wokufakwa kwamandla okugcina amandla asekhaya ngo-2021. Amashishini asebenza ngasemva kwemitha ahluka ngokweembono phakathi kwamazwe, kunye nezinga lokungena le-10% kwiindawo zokugcina ezinkulu eTshayina kunye ne-5% kwiindawo zokugcina amakhaya. Iimarike zaphesheya zigxile kakhulu kwiindawo zokugcina amakhaya. Ngo-2021, amandla afakiweyo okugcina amandla okuhlala eMelika anyuke nge-67%, ngelixa ukugcinwa kwamandla orhwebo kunye nooshishino kwehla nge-24%.

5. Uhlalutyo lweMarike yoGcino lwaMandla

Kwiminyaka yakutshanje, kwenziwe inkqubela phambili enkulu kubuchwepheshe obutsha bokugcina amandla obufana neebhetri ze-lithium-ion, iibhetri zokuhamba, iibhetri ze-sodium-ion, ukugcinwa kwamandla omoya ocinezelweyo, kunye nokugcinwa kwamandla omxhuzulane. Ishishini lokugcina amandla lasekhaya eTshayina lingene kwinqanaba lophuhliso olwahlukeneyo kwaye kulindeleke ukuba lithathe indawo ephambili kwihlabathi liphela kwixesha elizayo.

5.1 Iibhetri zokugcina amandla

Ngokuphathelele iibhetri zokugcina amandla, amandla okufakelwa kwebhetri yokugcina amandla kwihlabathi liphela kunye nesantya sokukhula siye sanda minyaka le, kunye nemfuno enkulu kwimarike yebhetri yokugcina amandla yehlabathi. Imveliso yebhetri ye-lithium yokugcina amandla eTshayina ibisoloko isanda, kwaye iindleko zeebhetri ze-lithium iron phosphate nge-kilowatt-yure nganye kulindeleke ukuba zehle. Iqhutywa yisikhokelo somgaqo-nkqubo kunye nokuhlaziywa kwetekhnoloji yeshishini, imakethi esezantsi yeebhetri zokugcina amandla inamandla amakhulu ophuhliso kunye nemfuno ebanzi, iqhuba ukwanda okuqhubekayo kwemfuno yeebhetri zokugcina amandla.

5.2 Iinkqubo zoGuqulo lwaMandla

Ngokuphathelele i-PCS (iiNkqubo zoGuqulo lwaMandla), umkhwa wehlabathi jikelele kukudibanisa ii-inverters ze-photovoltaic kunye nezokugcina amandla, ezihambelana kakhulu nee-inverters ezidityaniswe negridi yokuhlala. Ii-inverters zokugcina amandla zinexabiso eliphantsi, kwaye izinga lokungena kwee-microinverters kwimarike esasazekileyo kulindeleke ukuba liqhubeke liphucuka. Kwixesha elizayo, njengoko umlinganiselo woqwalaselo lokugcina amandla usanda, ishishini le-PCS liya kungena kwinqanaba lokukhula ngokukhawuleza.

5.3 Ulawulo lobushushu bokugcina amandla

Ngokuphathelele ulawulo lobushushu bokugcina amandla, ukukhula okuphezulu kweenkqubo zokugcina amandla e-electrochemical kuqhuba uphuhliso olukhawulezileyo lolawulo lobushushu bokugcina amandla. Ngowama-2025, ubungakanani bemarike yolawulo lobushushu bokugcina amandla e-electrochemical e-China kulindeleke ukuba bufikelele kwi-2.28-4.08 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi, kunye nesantya sokukhula esihambelanayo sonyaka se-77% kunye ne-91% ukusuka ngo-2022 ukuya ku-2025. Kwixesha elizayo, njengoko izicelo zokugcina amandla ezinomthamo ophezulu kunye nesantya esiphezulu zisanda, iimfuno eziphezulu ziya kubekwa kulawulo lobushushu. Ukupholisa ulwelo, njengesisombululo sobuchwephesha sexesha eliphakathi ukuya kwixesha elide, kulindeleke ukuba kunyuse kancinci izinga lokungena kwemarike, kunye nesabelo semarike esiqikelelweyo se-45% ngo-2025.

5.4 Ukhuseleko lomlilo kunye nokugcinwa kwamandla

Ngokuphathelele ukhuseleko lomlilo kunye nokugcinwa kwamandla, amashishini aphambili okugcina amandla eTshayina kwicandelo leenkqubo zokukhusela umlilo anendawo ebalulekileyo yokuphucula isabelo semarike. Okwangoku, ukhuseleko lomlilo lubandakanya malunga ne-3% yeendleko zenkqubo yokugcina amandla. Ngenxa yokuba amandla omoya kunye nelanga aphezulu aqhagamshelwe kwigridi, izinga lokusetyenziswa kokugcinwa kwamandla liya kwanda ngokukhawuleza, nto leyo ekhokelela kwimfuno enamandla yokukhusela umlilo kunye nokunyuka okufanayo kwenani leendleko zokukhusela umlilo.

I-China igxile kakhulu ekugcineni amandla amakhulu, ngelixa iimarike zaphesheya zigxile ekugcineni amandla kwiindawo zokuhlala. Ngo-2021, inani lokugcinwa kwamandla kwicala labasebenzisi kwindawo yokugcina amandla entsha yase-China lifikelele kwi-24%, nto leyo egxininisa ukubaluleka kwalo. Ngokuphathelele iimeko ezithile zokusetyenziswa, amacandelo orhwebo lwasekhaya kunye neepaki zoshishino zibalwa uninzi, ngesabelo esidibeneyo esingaphezulu kwe-80%, nto leyo eyenza ukuba zibe zezona zicelo ziphambili zokugcina amandla kwicala labasebenzisi.