Ingxaki yamandla ebangelwe yimfazwe e-Ukraine isenokuba yintlekele kwezoqoqosho kwiRashiya nakwiManyano yaseYurophu kangangokuba ekugqibeleni inokunciphisa zombini njengamandla amakhulu kwihlabathi liphela. Intsingiselo yolu tshintsho—olungaqondwa kakuhle—kukuba sibonakala ngathi sisiya ngokukhawuleza kwihlabathi elinomoya oguquguqukayo elilawulwa ziinkosi ezimbini ezinkulu: iTshayina ne-United States.

Ukuba sicinga ngexesha lasemva kweMfazwe ebandayo lolawulo lwe-US oluyi-unipolar njengelihlala ukususela ngo-1991 ukuya kwingxaki yezemali ka-2008, ngoko ke singaliphatha ixesha elisusela ngo-2008 ukuya kuFebruwari walo nyaka, xa iRashiya yahlasela i-Ukraine, njengexesha le-quasi-multipolarity. I-China yayikhula ngokukhawuleza, kodwa ubungakanani boqoqosho lwe-EU—nokukhula ngaphambi ko-2008—kwayinika ibango elifanelekileyo njengenye yamandla amakhulu ehlabathi. Ukuvuselelwa koqoqosho lweRashiya ukususela malunga no-2003 kunye namandla omkhosi aqhubekayo kwayibeka kwimephu nayo. Iinkokeli ukusuka eNew Delhi ukuya eBerlin ukuya eMoscow zancoma i-multipolarity njengolwakhiwo olutsha lwemicimbi yehlabathi.

Ingxabano yamandla eqhubekayo phakathi kweRashiya neNtshona ithetha ukuba ixesha le-multipolarity liphelile ngoku. Nangona izixhobo zenyukliya zeRashiya zingayi kuphela, eli lizwe liza kuzifumana liqabane elincinci kwicandelo lempembelelo elikhokelwa yiTshayina. Impembelelo encinci yengxaki yamandla kuqoqosho lwase-US, okwangoku, iya kuba yintuthuzelo ebandayo kwiWashington ngokwezopolitiko: Ukuphela kweYurophu ekugqibeleni kuya kunciphisa amandla e-United States, ebisoloko ibala ilizwekazi njengomhlobo.

Amandla angabizi kakhulu sisiseko soqoqosho lwanamhlanje. Nangona icandelo lamandla, ngamaxesha aqhelekileyo, libalelwa kwinxalenye encinci kuphela ye-GDP iyonke kuqoqosho oluphucukileyo, linempembelelo enkulu ekunyukeni kwamaxabiso kunye neendleko zokungenisa kuwo onke amacandelo ngenxa yokusetyenziswa kwawo ngokubanzi.

Amaxabiso ombane negesi yendalo aseYurophu ngoku aphantse aphindwe kalishumi kumndilili wawo wembali kwiminyaka elishumi eya kutsho ku-2020. Ukunyuka okukhulu kwalo nyaka kubangelwa phantse yimfazwe yaseRashiya e-Ukraine, nangona yayisenziwa mandundu bubushushu obukhulu nembalela kule hlobo. Kude kube ngu-2021, iYurophu (kuquka ne-United Kingdom) yayixhomekeke kwiimveliso zaseRashiya ezingeniswa kwamanye amazwe malunga nama-40 ekhulwini egesi yayo yendalo kunye nesabelo esikhulu seemfuno zayo zeoyile namalahle. Kwiinyanga ngaphambi kokuhlasela kwayo i-Ukraine, iRashiya yaqala ukulawula iimarike zamandla kwaye yanyusa amaxabiso egesi yendalo, ngokutsho kwe-International Energy Agency.

Amandla aseYurophu axabisa malunga neepesenti ezimbini ze-GDP ngamaxesha aqhelekileyo, kodwa anyuke aya kuthi ga kwi-12 ekhulwini ngenxa yokunyuka kwamaxabiso. Iindleko eziphezulu kangaka zithetha ukuba amashishini amaninzi kulo lonke elaseYurophu ayayinciphisa imisebenzi okanye ayayivala ngokupheleleyo. Abavelisi be-aluminium, abavelisi bezichumisi, abanyibilikisi besinyithi, kunye nabenzi beglasi basengozini enkulu yamaxabiso aphezulu egesi yendalo. Oku kuthetha ukuba iYurophu inokulindela ukudodobala okukhulu kwiminyaka ezayo, nangona uqikelelo lwezoqoqosho lokuba nzulu kangakanani luyahluka.

Ukucacisa: IYurophu ayizukuba hlwempuzekileyo. Abantu bayo abayi kubanda ebusika. Izalathiso zokuqala zibonisa ukuba ilizwekazi lenza umsebenzi omhle wokunciphisa ukusetyenziswa kwegesi yendalo kunye nokugcwalisa iitanki zalo zokugcina izinto ebusika. IJamani neFransi zineenkonzo ezinkulu ezisetyenziswa ngurhulumente—ngeendleko ezinkulu—ukunciphisa ukuphazamiseka kwabathengi bamandla.

Kunoko, umngcipheko wokwenene elijongene nawo ilizwekazi kukulahlekelwa kukukhuphisana kwezoqoqosho ngenxa yokukhula kancinci koqoqosho. Igesi engabizi kakhulu ixhomekeke kukholo olungeyonyani ekuthembekeni kweRashiya, kwaye oko kuphelile ngonaphakade. Ishishini liza kutshintsha kancinci kancinci, kodwa olo tshintsho luza kuthatha ixesha—kwaye lunokukhokelela ekutshintsheni koqoqosho okubuhlungu.

Ezi ngxaki zoqoqosho azinanto yakwenza notshintsho lwamandla acocekileyo okanye impendulo engxamisekileyo ye-EU kukuphazamiseka kwemarike okubangelwe yimfazwe e-Ukraine. Endaweni yoko, zinokulandelwa kwizigqibo zangaphambili zaseYurophu zokuphuhlisa umlutha wamafutha e-fossil aseRashiya, ingakumbi igesi yendalo. Nangona izinto ezivuselelekayo ezifana nelanga nomoya zinokuthatha indawo yamafutha e-fossil ekugqibeleni zibonelele ngombane ongabizi kakhulu, azinakuthatha indawo yegesi yendalo ngokulula ukuze zisetyenziswe kwimizi-mveliso—ingakumbi kuba igesi yendalo exutyiweyo (i-LNG) engeniswa kwamanye amazwe, edla ngokubizwa ngokuba yenye indlela endaweni yegesi yepayipi, ibiza kakhulu. Imizamo yabanye abezopolitiko yokugxeka utshintsho lwamandla acocekileyo ngenxa yesiphepho soqoqosho esiqhubekayo ayisebenzi kakuhle.

Iindaba ezimbi ngeYurophu zibangela umkhwa osele ukho: Ukusukela ngo-2008, isabelo se-EU kuqoqosho lwehlabathi siye sehla. Nangona i-United States ibuyele kwimeko yesiqhelo emva koKuwohloka Okukhulu koqoqosho ngokukhawuleza, uqoqosho lwaseYurophu luye lwasokola kakhulu. Ezinye zazo zathatha iminyaka ukukhula kwakhona ukuya kutsho kwinqanaba langaphambi kwengxaki. Okwangoku, uqoqosho e-Asia beluqhubeka lukhula ngesantya esiphezulu, lukhokelwa luqoqosho olukhulu lwaseTshayina.

Phakathi kowama-2009 nowama-2020, izinga lokukhula kwe-GDP yonyaka ye-EU lifikelele kuma-0.48 ekhulwini kuphela, ngokutsho kweBhanki yeHlabathi. Izinga lokukhula kwe-US kwixesha elifanayo laliphantse liphindwe kathathu, lifikelela kuma-1.38 ekhulwini ngonyaka. Kwaye iChina ikhule ngesantya esiphezulu se-7.36 ekhulwini ngonyaka kwixesha elifanayo. Isiphumo kukuba, nangona isabelo se-EU kwi-GDP yehlabathi sasisikhulu kuneso se-United States ne-China ngo-2009, ngoku sisezantsi kwezi zintathu.

Kutshanje ngo-2005, i-EU ibine-20% ye-GDP yehlabathi. Iza kubala isiqingatha nje saloo mali ekuqaleni kweminyaka yoo-2030 ukuba uqoqosho lwe-EU luncipha nge-3% ngo-2023 nango-2024 kwaye emva koko luqalise kwakhona izinga lalo lokukhula ngaphambi kobhubhane lwe-0.5% ngonyaka ngelixa lonke ihlabathi likhula nge-3% (umndilili wehlabathi wangaphambi kobhubhane). Ukuba ubusika buka-2023 bubanda kwaye ukudodobala koqoqosho okuzayo kubonakala kuqatha, isabelo seYurophu kwi-GDP yehlabathi sinokuwa ngokukhawuleza nangakumbi.

Okubi nangakumbi kukuba, iYurophu isemva kakhulu kwamanye amazwe ngokwamandla omkhosi. Amazwe aseYurophu ebesoloko echitha imali encinci emkhosini kangangeminyaka emininzi kwaye akanakukwazi ukuyilungisa ngokulula le ngxaki yokungabikho kotyalo-mali. Naluphi na utyalo-mali oluchithwa emkhosini waseYurophu ngoku—ukuze ahlawule ixesha elilahlekileyo—luza ngexabiso lamathuba kwamanye amacandelo oqoqosho, nto leyo enokubangela ukuba ukukhula kube nzima ngakumbi kwaye inyanzelise ukhetho olunzima malunga nokunciphisa iindleko zentlalo.

Imeko yeRashiya imbi kakhulu kuneye-EU. Inyani yile, ilizwe lisafumana ingeniso enkulu kwintengiso yalo yeoyile negesi kwamanye amazwe, ikakhulu eAsia. Nangona kunjalo, ekuhambeni kwexesha, icandelo leoyile negesi laseRashiya lisenokuwa—nangona imfazwe e-Ukraine iphelile. Uqoqosho lwaseRashiya luzabalaza, kwaye izohlwayo zaseNtshona ziya kuhlutha icandelo lamandla lelizwe ulwazi lobuchwephesha kunye nemali yotyalo-mali eliyidingayo kakhulu.

Ngoku ekubeni iYurophu ilahlekelwe lithemba kwiRashiya njengomboneleli wamandla, icebo elisebenzayo leRashiya kukuthengisa amandla ayo kubathengi baseAsia. Ngethamsanqa, iAsia inezoqoqosho ezininzi ezikhulayo. Okubuhlungu kukuba iRashiya, phantse lonke uthungelwano lwayo lwemibhobho kunye neziseko zamandla zakhiwe ngoku ukuze zithunyelwe eYurophu kwaye azikwazi ukujika ngokulula empuma. Kuya kuthatha iminyaka kunye neebhiliyoni zeedola ukuba iMoscow itshintshe ukuthunyelwa kwayo kwamandla—kwaye kusenokwenzeka ukuba ifumanise ukuba inokujika kuphela kwimibandela yezemali yaseBeijing. Ukuxhomekeka kwicandelo lamandla kwiTshayina kusenokwenzeka ukuba kudlulele kwi-geopolitics ebanzi, ubudlelwane apho iRashiya izifumana idlala indima engaphantsi. Ukuvuma kukaMongameli waseRashiya uVladimir Putin nge-15 kaSeptemba ukuba umlingani wakhe waseTshayina, uXi Jinping, wayene "mibuzo kunye neenkxalabo" malunga nemfazwe e-Ukraine kubonisa umahluko wamandla osele ukho phakathi kweBeijing neMoscow.

 

Ukunqongophala kokutya—namaxabiso aphezulu oko kufumanekayo—kunokubangela ingxaki enkulu kwezi ndawo kunamandla. Imfazwe e-Ukraine yonakalise isivuno kunye neendlela zokuthutha ingqolowa eninzi kunye nezinye iinkozo. Abathengisi abakhulu bokutya abanjenge-Egypt banesizathu sokukhathazeka malunga noxinzelelo lwezopolitiko oluhlala luhamba namaxabiso okunyuka kokutya.

Eyona nto iphambili kwezopolitiko zehlabathi kukuba sisiya kwihlabathi apho iChina ne-United States zingamandla amabini aphambili ehlabathi. Ukubekelwa ecaleni kweYurophu kwimicimbi yehlabathi kuya konakalisa izilangazelelo zaseMelika. IYurophu—ubukhulu becala—ilawulwa yintando yesininzi, ilawulwa yimali, kwaye izibophelele kumalungelo oluntu kunye nomyalelo wehlabathi osekelwe kwimithetho. I-EU ikwakhokele ihlabathi kwimigaqo ephathelele ukhuseleko, ubumfihlo bedatha, kunye nokusingqongileyo, inyanzela iinkampani zamazwe ngamazwe ukuba ziphucule indlela eziziphatha ngayo kwihlabathi liphela ukuze zihambelane nemigangatho yaseYurophu. Ukubekelwa ecaleni kweRashiya kunokubonakala kulungile kwizilangazelelo zaseMelika, kodwa kunomngcipheko wokuba uPutin (okanye umlandeli wakhe) uya kusabela ekulahlekelweni kwesidima nodumo lwelizwe ngokugxeka ngeendlela ezitshabalalisayo—mhlawumbi neziyingozi.

Njengoko iYurophu izama ukuzinzisa uqoqosho lwayo, i-United States ifanele iyixhase xa kunokwenzeka, kuquka nokuthumela ngaphandle ezinye zezixhobo zayo zamandla, ezifana ne-LNG. Oku kunokuba lula ukutsho kunokukwenza: AmaMerika akakavuki ngokupheleleyo kwiindleko zawo zamandla ezikhulayo. Amaxabiso egesi yendalo e-United States aphindwe kathathu kulo nyaka kwaye anokunyuka njengoko iinkampani zaseMelika zizama ukufikelela kwiimarike zokuthumela ngaphandle ze-LNG ezinenzuzo eYurophu nase-Asia. Ukuba amaxabiso amandla ayanda ngakumbi, abezopolitiko baseMelika baya kuba phantsi koxinzelelo lokunciphisa ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe ukuze kulondolozwe ukufikeleleka kwamandla eMntla Melika.

Njengoko ijongene neYurophu ebuthathaka, abenzi bomgaqo-nkqubo baseMelika baya kufuna ukwakha isangqa esibanzi sabalingani kwezoqoqosho abacinga ngokufanayo kwimibutho yamazwe ngamazwe efana neZizwe eziManyeneyo, iWorld Trade Organisation, kunye neInternational Monetary Fund. Oku kunokuthetha ukuthandana okukhulu kwamazwe aphakathi afana neIndiya, iBrazil, neIndonesia. Sekunjalo, iYurophu ibonakala kunzima ukuyitshintsha. I-United States iye yazuza amashumi eminyaka ngenxa yezilangazelelo zoqoqosho kunye nokuqondana nelizwekazi. Kangangokuba ubunzima bezoqoqosho baseYurophu ngoku buyancipha, i-United States iya kujongana nokumelana okuqatha nombono wayo wocwangco lwamazwe ngamazwe oluxhasa idemokhrasi ngokubanzi.