Ukuba siqwalasela umzuzu we-post-Cold War we-unipolar dominance yase-US njengexesha elide ukusuka kwi-1991 ukuya kwintlekele yezemali ye-2008, ngoko sinokuphatha ixesha ukusuka kwi-2008 ukuya kuFebruwari walo nyaka, xa iRashiya yahlasela i-Ukraine, njengexesha le-quasi-multipolarity. .I-China yayikhula ngokukhawuleza, kodwa ubukhulu bezoqoqosho be-EU-kunye nokukhula phambi kuka-2008-kwayinika ibango elisemthethweni njengelinye lamagunya amakhulu ehlabathi.Ukuvuswa koqoqosho lwaseRussia ukusukela ngo-2003 kunye namandla omkhosi aqhubekayo ayibeka kwimephu nayo.Iinkokeli ezisuka eNew Delhi ukuya eBerlin ukuya eMoscow zancoma ubuninzi bezinto ezininzi njengolwakhiwo olutsha lwemicimbi yehlabathi.

Ingxabano yamandla eqhubekayo phakathi kweRashiya kunye neNtshona ithetha ukuba ixesha le-multipolarity liphelile.Nangona izixhobo zenyukliya zaseRussia zingazukuhamba, eli lizwe liya kuzifumana liliqabane eliphantsi kwinqanaba lempembelelo ekhokelwa yiTshayina.Impembelelo encinci yengxaki yamandla kuqoqosho lwase-US, okwangoku, iya kuba yintuthuzelo ebandayo eWashington geopolitically: Ukubuna kweYurophu ekugqibeleni kuya kuthoba amandla e-United States, ekudala ibala ilizwekazi njengomhlobo.

Amandla aphantsi asisiseko soqoqosho lwale mihla.Nangona icandelo lamandla, ngamaxesha aqhelekileyo, libalela iqhezu elincinci le-GDP iyonke kuqoqosho oluphambili, linempembelelo engaphaya kokunyuka kwamaxabiso kunye neendleko zegalelo kuwo onke amacandelo ngenxa yobuninzi bayo ekusetyenzisweni.

Amaxabiso ombane aseYurophu kunye negesi yendalo ngoku asondele kumaxesha angama-10 ngokwembali yawo kwiminyaka elishumi ekhokelela kwi-2020. Ukuphakama okukhulu kwalo nyaka kuphantse kubangelwa yimfazwe yaseRussia e-Ukraine, nangona yongezwa bubushushu obukhulu kunye nembalela kweli hlobo.De kwangowama-2021, iYurophu (kuquka iUnited Kingdom) ibixhomekeke ekuthengeni impahla evela eRashiya malunga nama-40 ekhulwini erhasi yendalo yayo kunye nesabelo esikhulu seemfuno zayo zeoli namalahle.Kwiinyanga ngaphambi kokuba ihlasele i-Ukraine, iRashiya yaqala ukuxhaphaza iimarike zamandla kunye nokunyusa amaxabiso egesi yendalo, ngokutsho kwe-Arhente yaMandla yamazwe ngamazwe.

Amandla aseYurophu axabisa malunga nesi-2 ekhulwini se-GDP ngamaxesha aqhelekileyo, kodwa anyuke afikelela kwi-12 leepesenti ngenxa yokunyuka kwamaxabiso.Iindleko eziphezulu zolu bungakanani zithetha ukuba amashishini amaninzi kulo lonke elaseYurophu ayayibuyisela umva imisebenzi okanye avale ngokupheleleyo.Abavelisi be-aluminiyam, abavelisi bezichumiso, izinyibilikisi zesinyithi, kunye nabenzi beglasi ngabona basemngciphekweni wamaxabiso aphezulu egesi yendalo.Oku kuthetha ukuba iYurophu inokulindela ukudodobala okukhulu kwezoqoqosho kule minyaka izayo, nangona uqikelelo lwezoqoqosho luhluke ngendlela enzulu ngayo.

Ukucaca: iYurophu ayizukuhlwempuzeka.Nabantu bayo abayi kuba ngumkhenkce kobu busika.Iimpawu zakwangoko zibonisa ukuba ilizwekazi lenza umsebenzi omhle wokunciphisa ukusetyenziswa kwerhasi yendalo kunye nokuzalisa iitanki zokugcina ebusika.IJamani kunye neFransi ziye zafaka zonke izinto eziluncedo kuzwelonke-ngeendleko ezinkulu-ukunciphisa ukuphazamiseka kubasebenzisi bamandla.

Endaweni yoko, owona mngcipheko ilizwekazi elijongene nawo kukulahlekelwa lukhuphiswano lwezoqoqosho ngenxa yokucotha kokukhula koqoqosho.Igesi eshibhile ixhomekeke kukholo lobuxoki ekuthembekeni kweRashiya, kwaye oko kuphelile ngonaphakade.Ishishini liya kulungelelanisa ngokuthe ngcembe, kodwa olo tshintsho luya kuthatha ixesha-kwaye lunokukhokelela ekuhluthweni okubuhlungu kwezoqoqosho.

Ezi ngxaki zezoqoqosho azinanto yakwenza notshintsho lwamandla acocekileyo okanye impendulo engxamisekileyo ye-EU ekuphazamisekeni kweemarike okubangelwa yimfazwe yaseUkraine.Endaweni yoko, banokulandwa kwizigqibo zaseYurophu ezidlulileyo zokuphuhlisa umlutha wamafutha efosili yaseRashiya, ngakumbi igesi yendalo.Nangona izinto ezihlaziyiweyo ezifana nelanga kunye nomoya zinokuthi ekugqibeleni zithathe indawo yamafutha efosili ekuboneleleni ngombane ophantsi, azinakuthatha indawo yerhasi yendalo ngokulula kusetyenziso lwemizi-mveliso-ingakumbi kuba i-liquified natural gas (LNG) ephuma kumazwe angaphandle, eyona ndlela isoloko ikhankanywa kwigesi yombhobho, ibiza kakhulu.Iinzame zabanye abezobupolitika ukubeka ityala ngotshintsho lwamandla acocekileyo ngenxa yesaqhwithi esiqhubekayo sezoqoqosho ziphosakele.

Iindaba ezimbi zaseYurophu zidibanisa imeko ekhoyo ngaphambili: Ukusukela ngo-2008, isabelo se-EU kuqoqosho lwehlabathi siye sehla.Nangona iUnited States yaphinda yachacha kwiRecession eNkulu ngokukhawuleza, uqoqosho lwaseYurophu lwatsala nzima kakhulu.Abanye babo bathathe iminyaka ukuphinda bakhule ukuya kumanqanaba angaphambi kwentlekele.Ngeli xesha, uqoqosho lwase-Asiya lwaluqhubeka lukhula ngamazinga axhomisa amehlo, lukhokelwa luqoqosho olukhulu lwaseTshayina.

Phakathi kuka-2009 kunye no-2020, izinga lokukhula kwe-GDP lonyaka le-EU lilinganiselwa kwi-0.48 yeepesenti, ngokutsho kweBhanki yehlabathi.Izinga lokukhula kwe-US ngexesha elifanayo laliphantse liphindwe kathathu ngaphezulu, i-avareji ye-1.38 ekhulwini ngonyaka.Kwaye iTshayina yakhula ngesantya esisi-7.36 ekhulwini ngonyaka ngelo xesha linye.Isiphumo esishiyekileyo sesokuba, ngelixa isabelo se-EU seGDP yehlabathi sasisikhulu kunezo zombini zase-United States nase China ngo-2009, ngoku sesona sisezantsi kwezi zintathu.

Kutshanje ngo-2005, i-EU ithathe ipesenti ezingama-20 zeGDP yehlabathi.Iya kuba sisiqingatha nje seso sixa-mali ekuqaleni koo-2030 ukuba uqoqosho lwe-EU lucutheka ngeepesenti ezi-3 ngo-2023 nango-2024 kwaye emva koko luphinde luqalise ukukhula kwangaphambi kobhubhane lwe-0.5 yeepesenti ngonyaka ngelixa lonke ilizwe likhula ngeepesenti ezi-3 ( umndilili wehlabathi wangaphambi kobhubhane).Ukuba ubusika bowama-2023 buyabanda kwaye ukudodobala koqoqosho okuzayo kubonakala kubi kakhulu, isabelo seYurophu seGDP yehlabathi sinokuhla ngokukhawuleza.

Okubi nangakumbi kukuba, iYurophu isemva kakhulu kwamanye amagunya ngokomelela komkhosi.Amazwe aseYurophu aye angayisebenzisi imali yasemkhosini kangangamashumi eminyaka kwaye akanakukwazi ukubuyisela lula oku kunqongophala kotyalo-mali.Nayiphi na inkcitho yomkhosi waseYurophu ngoku-ukwenza ixesha elilahlekileyo-kuza ngeendleko zethuba kwezinye iindawo zoqoqosho, ezinokuthi zibangele ukukhula ngakumbi kunye nokunyanzela ukhetho olubuhlungu malunga nokunciphisa inkcitho yentlalo.

Imeko yaseRashiya imbi kakhulu kune-EU.Kuyinyani, ilizwe lisafumana ingeniso enkulu ekuthengisweni kweoyile negesi kumazwe angaphandle, ikakhulu eAsia.Ekuhambeni kwexesha, nangona kunjalo, icandelo le-oyile kunye negesi laseRashiya liya kuhla-nangona emva kokuba imfazwe yaseUkraine iphelile.Lonke uqoqosho lwaseRashiya lutsala nzima, kwaye izohlwayo zaseNtshona ziya kubahlutha icandelo lezamandla lelizwe kubuchwephesha bobugcisa kunye neemali zotyalo-mali ezizifuna ngamandla.

Ngoku ekubeni iYurophu ilahlekelwe lukholo kwiRashiya njengomboneleli wamandla, iqhinga elisebenzayo laseRashiya kukuthengisa amandla ayo kubathengi baseAsia.Okuvuyisayo kukuba, iAsia inoqoqosho oluninzi olukhulayo.Ngokudabukisayo eRussia, phantse uthungelwano lwayo lwemibhobho kunye neziseko zamandla zakhiwe ngoku ukuze zithunyelwe kumazwe angaphandle eYurophu kwaye azinakujika ngokulula empuma.Kuya kuthatha iminyaka kunye neebhiliyoni zeedola ukuba iMoscow ihlengahlengise ukuthunyelwa kwamandla kumazwe angaphandle-kwaye kusenokwenzeka ukuba ifumanise ukuba inokuhamba kuphela ngokwemiqathango yezemali yaseBeijing.Ukuxhomekeka kwecandelo lamandla e-China kusenokwenzeka ukuba kudlulele kwi-geopolitics ebanzi, intsebenziswano apho iRussia izifumanisa idlala indima ekhulayo.Ukuvuma kukaMongameli waseRashiya uVladimir Putin ngoSeptemba we-15 ukuba iqabane lakhe laseTshayina, u-Xi Jinping, "wayenemibuzo kunye neenkxalabo" malunga nemfazwe yase-Ukraine ibonisa umahluko wamandla osele ukhona phakathi kweBeijing neMoscow.

Ukunqongophala kokutya—kunye namaxabiso aphakamileyo oko kufumanekayo—kunokubangela ingxaki engakumbi kule mimandla ngaphezu kwamandla.Imfazwe yaseUkraine yonakalise ukuvunwa neendlela zokuthutha izixa ezikhulu zengqolowa nezinye iinkozo.Abathengisi bokutya abaphambili njenge-Egypt banesizathu sokoyika malunga nezidubedube zezopolitiko ezihlala zihamba kunye nokunyuka kweendleko zokutya.

Undoqo kwipolitiki yehlabathi kukuba sisondela kwihlabathi apho iTshayina neUnited States ingamagunya amabini aphambili ehlabathi.Ukubekwa ecaleni kweYurophu kwimicimbi yehlabathi kuya kuwonakalisa umdla wase-US.IYurophu—ubukhulu becala—idemokhrasi, ingxowankulu, kwaye izinikele kumalungelo oluntu kunye nocwangco olusekelwe kwimithetho yamazwe ngamazwe.I-EU ikwakhokele ihlabathi kwimigaqo ephathelele kukhuseleko, ubumfihlo bedatha, kunye nokusingqongileyo, inyanzelela amaqumrhu ezizwe ngezizwe ukuba aphucule indlela aziphatha ngayo kwihlabathi jikelele ukuze ahambelane nemigangatho yaseYurophu.Ukubekwa ecaleni kweRussia kunokubonakala kukuhle ngakumbi kwimidla yase-US, kodwa inomngcipheko wokuba uPutin (okanye indlalifa yakhe) angasabela ekulahlekelweni kwesidima kunye nodumo lwelizwe ngokugqabhuka ngeendlela ezitshabalalisayo—ezinokuthi zibe yintlekele.

Njengoko iYurophu izama ukuzinzisa uqoqosho lwayo, iUnited States kufuneka ixhase xa kunokwenzeka, kubandakanywa nokuthumela kwamanye amazwe ezinye zemithombo yayo yamandla, njenge-LNG.Oku kunokuba lula ukuthetha kunokukwenza: abantu baseMelika abakavuki ngokupheleleyo kwiindleko zabo zamandla ezikhulayo.Amaxabiso erhasi yendalo e-United States aphindaphindeke kathathu kulo nyaka kwaye anokunyukela phezulu njengoko iinkampani zase-US zizama ukufikelela kwiimarike ze-LNG ezinengeniso enkulu eYurophu nase-Asiya.Ukuba amaxabiso amandla enyuka ngakumbi, abezopolitiko base-US baya kuba phantsi koxinzelelo lokuthintela ukuthunyelwa ngaphandle ukuze kugcinwe ukufikeleleka kwamandla kuMntla Melika.

Ejongene neYurophu ebuthathaka, abaqulunqi bomgaqo-nkqubo base-US baya kufuna ukuhlakulela isangqa esibanzi samahlakani ezoqoqosho anengqondo efanayo kwimibutho yamazwe ngamazwe efana neZizwe eziManyeneyo, iWorld Trade Organisation, kunye ne-International Monetary Fund.Oku kunokuthetha ukudibana okukhulu kwamagunya aphakathi afana neIndiya, iBrazil, neIndonesia.Sekunjalo, iYurophu ibonakala kunzima ukuyitshintsha.I-United States ixhamle amashumi eminyaka kwimidla yoqoqosho ekwabelwana ngayo kunye nokuqondana nelizwekazi.Ukuya kuthi ga ngoku ukudodobala koqoqosho lwaseYurobhu ngoku, i-United States iya kujongana nokumelana nombono wayo wolungelelwaniso lwezizwe ngezizwe oluthanda idemokhrasi ngokubanzi.